Wednesday, February 28, 2007

History of the Twins Part 2 - Change of Hands

I'm somewhat recovered from reliving the pain that was the 2000 Tempe Spiders offense. Now we trudge on to the pitching staff, keeping it blissfully short but still searching for a point.

Pitching

As noted in the prior post, the Spiders allowed the ninth fewest runs in the league. That is the good news. It translates into a team ERA of 5.17 which on the face of it doesn’t sound good but in context is about average since the league ERA for 2000 was 5.27.

Starters – The Spiders relied on six starters during the 2000 season. Randy Wolf was easily the best starter compiling a 7-7 record in his 20 starts along with a 4.06 ERA. Kirk Rueter was a league average starter in his 31 starts going 10-13 with a 5.12 ERA. How he does that while having a 71 walk to 81 strikeout ratio, allowing 239 hits in 197 innings pitched and giving up 37 dingers is beyond me. A young Roy Halladay started 13 games and posted a respectable 6-5 record and an ERA of 5.03. The unrespectable area for Halladay was the 47 walks and only 39 strikeouts in 77 innings. Pat Hentgen, Masato Yoshii and Matt Clement rounded out rotation combining for a 20-51 record and an ERA pushing six.

Bullpen – The bullpen was pushed hard with two relievers throwing over 100 innings. Shigetoshi Hasegawa hurled 118.3 innings in relief and Antonia Alfonseca notched 110.7 innings, polydactyly not withstanding. Matt Mantei managed to stay ambulatory long enough to lead the Spiders with 14 saves but wasn’t all that effected with a 5.53 ERA and 29 walks in 40 innings. John Rocker appeared in only 32 games but was effective striking out 43 in 31 innings and garnering 12 saves. The MVP of the bullpen had to be Steve Kline. Kline pitched 55 very strong innings posting a 2.77 ERA.

2000 Season Wrapup

A 59-103 doesn’t have to be considered a failure for an expansion team if there is some hope for the future. Young players with the potential to improve and build on that initial season can help buoy hope during those long seasons. Unfortunately for the Spider faithful pictured here:



there were few buoys on the roster. Gabe Kapler was only 23 years old and held promise. Javier Valentin was also only 23 and looked to have a bright future. None of the other regulars were particularly young or effective. Pitching shined a little brighter, with a pair of 22 year olds in Randy Wolf and Roy Halladay and 24 year old Matt Clement looking to grow into effective pitchers. Out of the pen, Matt Mantei, John Rocker, Steve Kline and Vladimar Nunez were all under 27 years of age and the future looked bright. Of course, brightness is a relative term...

As we will see as the Twins history unfolds, the future quickly clouded for most of those players and for the Tempe Spiders. The team was orphaned following the 2000 season and in mid-January of 2001 a new owner took the helm of the club.

History of the Twins Part 1 - In the Beginning God Made the Spiders...





Fargo-Moorhead Twins history starts not in the barren, wind-swept prairies of the Red River valley but rather in the Valley of the Sun. The Tempe Spiders were an expansion team that started play in the MDBL 2000 season and serve as the origins of the current Twins. The original owner of the Tempe Spiders is lost to the mists of time (unless long-term owners recall) and he served as the general manager of the club and I believe current Boston Spider owner Dale Messmer served as the manager during that inaugural season. That first season was a struggle, as it is for most expansion teams, and the Spiders finished 59-103. Applying the James Pythagorean Expected Win theorem to the Spiders runs scored (650, worst in the league) and runs allowed (893, a respectable ninth best) an expected winning percentage of .346 is derived which works out to a 56-106 record. So the cunning managerial style of Mr. Messmer was worth three wins in the Spiders initial season. (In the interest of full disclosure, Mr. Messmer is the current manager of the USBL Boston Braves of which the current FM Twins ownership is also the owner and GM. Hence the warm words in an effort to keep him from asking for a raise after leading the Braves to an unexpected berth in the championship series in the inaugural USBL season.)

Offense (or just plain Offensive)

Catcher – The burden of the tools of ignorance were split between three players Alberto Castillo (75 starts), Javier Valentin (53) and Henry Blanco (34). Although known more as a defensive catcher, Castillo had probably the worst season behind the plate of the three (throwing out only seven of the thirty would-be base stealers) but was an utter surprise at the plate. Castillo hit .335 in 254 at-bats with surprising patience and power thrown in (.375 OBP and .484 SLG). In terms of runs created by game, Castillo’s mark of 7.12 was second best on the team. Valentin had to have been considered the heir apparent to the position at the time and put forth a solid season on defense (nabbing 10 in 26 stolen base attempts. Valentin struggled at the plate with an OPS of .667 but showed an encouraging 18/25 walk to strikeout rate in 183 AB. Henry Blanco was…well…Henry Blanco, throwing out base-stealers at a 33% clip and producing a robust OPS of .563.

First Base – The offensive star of the team, John Jaha, did what he does best combining patience and power and little else. Jaha clubbed a team-leading 42 home runs (still the fourth best total in Twins history) and accepted 103 free passes to first base (still the fifth best total in Twins history). Amazingly, 39.6% of Jaha’s hits where home runs (106 hits, 42 HR) but even more amazing is that it only the ninth best percentage in MDBL history for players hitting more than 20 homers. One players name appears four times before you get to Jaha’s number and has 4 of the top 5 spots. Can you name him? Check here, MDBL By the Numbers, for the answer.

Second Base – The immortal Trent Durrington manned the keystone. More accurately Durrington played second base and stood looking dazed and confused at the plate. In 396 AB, Trent put up this line: .139 BA/.191 OBP/.154 SLG/.346 OPS. Good thing I didn’t see this before hiring Skipper Messmer for the USBL gig. It will come as a surprise to no one that the .346 OPS is the worst effort in MDBL history for a player somehow amassing 400 or more plate appearances. In an effort to be positive, Durrington did "contribute" 31 sacrifice hits during the season which is still the fifth most in a season in MDBL history. Placing him with the likes of Juan Castro, Doug Glanville, Rey Ordonez and Royce Clayton in the annuals of the MDBL.

Third Base – Matt Williams took position at the hot corner and contributed 29 homers and 83 runs batted in. An OBP of .293 and a propensity to accumulate a vast number of outs at the plate, ensured that this was Matt’s only season with the Spiders/Twins.

Shortstop – Reviewing the Spiders’ roster and lineup, you begin to understand why the team was orphaned after the season. Rey Ordonez occupied the shortstop position in 2000. Saint Rey dragged down the Spiders’ offense with an OPS of .480 but he was pretty fair with the leather posting a fielding percentage of .995 while committing only four errors. That still doesn’t cover a .480 OPS....

Left Field – Noted slugger Tony Womack took up station in left field for 124 games. Not sure I can continue, this is pretty depressing. Let’s review: starting second baseman OPS of .346, starting shortstop OPS of .480 and starting left fielder OPS of .597. Yikes!

Center Field – Gabe Kapler and Damon Buford pretty much split the center field duties in half with Kapler starting 79 games and Buford 74. Neither player was highly effective but Kapler far out shown Buford creating 4.21 runs per 27 outs compared to the 2.80 for Buford.

Right Field – Raul Mondesi made a lot of noise with 34 homers and a team-leading 94 RBI but all that noise really did was drowned out a whole lotta outs leading to a paltry 4.63 runs created per game and a lackluster OPS of .735.

Painful, brutal, sad…I can't go on. The pitching staff will have to wait until another day....

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Thome




Should he stay or should he go?

Free agent Jim Thome received a contract offer from the NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers valued over $1 million dollars yesterday in the final day of Free Agent draft. Now it is decision time for Twins management.

The Twins acquired Thome on December 28, 2002 in a trade with the North Texas (now Eureka) Tigers. The Tigers, in a bit of a financial crunch, had put Thome and his 5 year $450,000 per year contract on the market with four years remaining on said contract. The Twins were coming off a 62-100 season and had scored with the third fewest runs scored in the league. Obviously the Twins needed some punch on the offense and Thome and his big bat and bigger contract provided that punch.

The cost of acquiring Thome?

Tyrell Godwin, Brad Thomas, Brent Clevlen, 2003 1st and 2nd Round Minor League Picks and 2004 1st and 2nd Round Minor League picks. How have those players performed and what become of the draft picks?

Godwin never reached the majors with the Tigers (or any other MDBL team for that matter but still remains one of my favorite prospects of all-time, for some unknown reason).

Brad Thomas never pitched in a game in the majors for the Tigers

Brent Clevlen has yet to reach the majors though he remains a solid prospect.

2003 1st Round selection - Mike Hinckley
2003 2nd Round selection - Jonathan Figueroa
2004 1st Round selection - Jake Dittler
2005 2nd Round selection - Ramon Nivar

So far so good from a Twins perspective, none of the prospects or the players selected in the draft by Tigers jump out at you and say "Uurrgghhh, why did I trade him????"

Of course, if the players selected with the draft selections read Brandon Webb (nine slots after Hinckley), Jered Weaver (six after Figueroa), Andy LaRoche (twenty-three after Dittler) and Huston Street (two after Nivar) then it would be a different story. But draft hindsight three years later is better than 20/20.

Now consider these numbers:

2003 - 564 AB, 60 HR, 139 RBI, 1.107 OPS
2004 - 595 AB, 56 HR, 150 RBI, 1.026 OPS
2005 - 615 AB, 54 HR, 149 RBI, 1.022 OPS
2006 - 58 AB, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .900 OPS

It goes without saying that 2006 sticks out like a sore thumb or wrist, as the case may be, but those first three season in a Twins uniform were well worth $450,000 per year.

Next set of numbers: 104, 107, 106 and 95.

Those are the number of wins in Thome's first four season with the Twins. That is all the more impressive when you consider that the three season before his arrival the win totals were 59, 40 and 62. Of course, players like Curt Schilling, John Smoltz and Luis Castillo helped out some too.

Those four season not only include 412 regular season wins but two BiCoastal Division championships (2003 and 2005), three consectutive Warm Conference pennents (2004-2006) and Championships flags in 2004 and 2006.

More numbers:

Home Runs - 173
RBI - 173
Runs - 409
Walks - 381
OPS - 1.046
SLG - .635
OBP - .412
Grand Slams - 6
GW RBI - 53
IBB - 20

Those are all-time Twins records in each category and since this isn't being written about Corey Patterson or Alex Ochoa, they are all held by Jim Thome.

Now, do the Twins match the Pear Dealers massive contract or do they let him go and take the two sandwich picks as compensation? The Pear Dealers offer of $1,032,000 works out to one of the following:

1 year contract @ $1,032,000 (Thome's age at the end of contract 36)
2 years @ $688,000 (37)
3 years @ $516,000 (38)
4 years @ $413,000 (39)
5 years @ $344,000 (40)

Those numbers give pause no doubt but what it comes down to is this: Santana and Halladay. Signing Thome now for that much money greatly reduces any chance of the Twins keeping both pitchers after their current contracts expire after the 2008 season. OK, that is under-selling it, signing Thome for that amount of money would preclude signing both pitchers and may even make signing one of those two pitchers problematic.

So following in the footsteps of Garret Anderson in 2005 and Brian Giles in 2006, Thome will be allowed to leave, sign a rich free agent contract (with a divisional foe no less) and wished good luck. The Twins will muddle along without him.