Should he stay or should he go?
Free agent Jim Thome received a contract offer from the NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers valued over $1 million dollars yesterday in the final day of Free Agent draft. Now it is decision time for Twins management.
The Twins acquired Thome on December 28, 2002 in a trade with the North Texas (now Eureka) Tigers. The Tigers, in a bit of a financial crunch, had put Thome and his 5 year $450,000 per year contract on the market with four years remaining on said contract. The Twins were coming off a 62-100 season and had scored with the third fewest runs scored in the league. Obviously the Twins needed some punch on the offense and Thome and his big bat and bigger contract provided that punch.
The cost of acquiring Thome?
Tyrell Godwin, Brad Thomas, Brent Clevlen, 2003 1st and 2nd Round Minor League Picks and 2004 1st and 2nd Round Minor League picks. How have those players performed and what become of the draft picks?
Godwin never reached the majors with the Tigers (or any other MDBL team for that matter but still remains one of my favorite prospects of all-time, for some unknown reason).
Brad Thomas never pitched in a game in the majors for the Tigers
Brent Clevlen has yet to reach the majors though he remains a solid prospect.
2003 1st Round selection - Mike Hinckley
2003 2nd Round selection - Jonathan Figueroa
2004 1st Round selection - Jake Dittler
2005 2nd Round selection - Ramon Nivar
So far so good from a Twins perspective, none of the prospects or the players selected in the draft by Tigers jump out at you and say "Uurrgghhh, why did I trade him????"
Of course, if the players selected with the draft selections read Brandon Webb (nine slots after Hinckley), Jered Weaver (six after Figueroa), Andy LaRoche (twenty-three after Dittler) and Huston Street (two after Nivar) then it would be a different story. But draft hindsight three years later is better than 20/20.
Now consider these numbers:
2003 - 564 AB, 60 HR, 139 RBI, 1.107 OPS
2004 - 595 AB, 56 HR, 150 RBI, 1.026 OPS
2005 - 615 AB, 54 HR, 149 RBI, 1.022 OPS
2006 - 58 AB, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .900 OPS
It goes without saying that 2006 sticks out like a sore thumb or wrist, as the case may be, but those first three season in a Twins uniform were well worth $450,000 per year.
Next set of numbers: 104, 107, 106 and 95.
Those are the number of wins in Thome's first four season with the Twins. That is all the more impressive when you consider that the three season before his arrival the win totals were 59, 40 and 62. Of course, players like Curt Schilling, John Smoltz and Luis Castillo helped out some too.
Those four season not only include 412 regular season wins but two BiCoastal Division championships (2003 and 2005), three consectutive Warm Conference pennents (2004-2006) and Championships flags in 2004 and 2006.
More numbers:
Home Runs - 173
RBI - 173
Runs - 409
Walks - 381
OPS - 1.046
SLG - .635
OBP - .412
Grand Slams - 6
GW RBI - 53
IBB - 20
Those are all-time Twins records in each category and since this isn't being written about Corey Patterson or Alex Ochoa, they are all held by Jim Thome.
Now, do the Twins match the Pear Dealers massive contract or do they let him go and take the two sandwich picks as compensation? The Pear Dealers offer of $1,032,000 works out to one of the following:
1 year contract @ $1,032,000 (Thome's age at the end of contract 36)
2 years @ $688,000 (37)
3 years @ $516,000 (38)
4 years @ $413,000 (39)
5 years @ $344,000 (40)
Those numbers give pause no doubt but what it comes down to is this: Santana and Halladay. Signing Thome now for that much money greatly reduces any chance of the Twins keeping both pitchers after their current contracts expire after the 2008 season. OK, that is under-selling it, signing Thome for that amount of money would preclude signing both pitchers and may even make signing one of those two pitchers problematic.
So following in the footsteps of Garret Anderson in 2005 and Brian Giles in 2006, Thome will be allowed to leave, sign a rich free agent contract (with a divisional foe no less) and wished good luck. The Twins will muddle along without him.
Free agent Jim Thome received a contract offer from the NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers valued over $1 million dollars yesterday in the final day of Free Agent draft. Now it is decision time for Twins management.
The Twins acquired Thome on December 28, 2002 in a trade with the North Texas (now Eureka) Tigers. The Tigers, in a bit of a financial crunch, had put Thome and his 5 year $450,000 per year contract on the market with four years remaining on said contract. The Twins were coming off a 62-100 season and had scored with the third fewest runs scored in the league. Obviously the Twins needed some punch on the offense and Thome and his big bat and bigger contract provided that punch.
The cost of acquiring Thome?
Tyrell Godwin, Brad Thomas, Brent Clevlen, 2003 1st and 2nd Round Minor League Picks and 2004 1st and 2nd Round Minor League picks. How have those players performed and what become of the draft picks?
Godwin never reached the majors with the Tigers (or any other MDBL team for that matter but still remains one of my favorite prospects of all-time, for some unknown reason).
Brad Thomas never pitched in a game in the majors for the Tigers
Brent Clevlen has yet to reach the majors though he remains a solid prospect.
2003 1st Round selection - Mike Hinckley
2003 2nd Round selection - Jonathan Figueroa
2004 1st Round selection - Jake Dittler
2005 2nd Round selection - Ramon Nivar
So far so good from a Twins perspective, none of the prospects or the players selected in the draft by Tigers jump out at you and say "Uurrgghhh, why did I trade him????"
Of course, if the players selected with the draft selections read Brandon Webb (nine slots after Hinckley), Jered Weaver (six after Figueroa), Andy LaRoche (twenty-three after Dittler) and Huston Street (two after Nivar) then it would be a different story. But draft hindsight three years later is better than 20/20.
Now consider these numbers:
2003 - 564 AB, 60 HR, 139 RBI, 1.107 OPS
2004 - 595 AB, 56 HR, 150 RBI, 1.026 OPS
2005 - 615 AB, 54 HR, 149 RBI, 1.022 OPS
2006 - 58 AB, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .900 OPS
It goes without saying that 2006 sticks out like a sore thumb or wrist, as the case may be, but those first three season in a Twins uniform were well worth $450,000 per year.
Next set of numbers: 104, 107, 106 and 95.
Those are the number of wins in Thome's first four season with the Twins. That is all the more impressive when you consider that the three season before his arrival the win totals were 59, 40 and 62. Of course, players like Curt Schilling, John Smoltz and Luis Castillo helped out some too.
Those four season not only include 412 regular season wins but two BiCoastal Division championships (2003 and 2005), three consectutive Warm Conference pennents (2004-2006) and Championships flags in 2004 and 2006.
More numbers:
Home Runs - 173
RBI - 173
Runs - 409
Walks - 381
OPS - 1.046
SLG - .635
OBP - .412
Grand Slams - 6
GW RBI - 53
IBB - 20
Those are all-time Twins records in each category and since this isn't being written about Corey Patterson or Alex Ochoa, they are all held by Jim Thome.
Now, do the Twins match the Pear Dealers massive contract or do they let him go and take the two sandwich picks as compensation? The Pear Dealers offer of $1,032,000 works out to one of the following:
1 year contract @ $1,032,000 (Thome's age at the end of contract 36)
2 years @ $688,000 (37)
3 years @ $516,000 (38)
4 years @ $413,000 (39)
5 years @ $344,000 (40)
Those numbers give pause no doubt but what it comes down to is this: Santana and Halladay. Signing Thome now for that much money greatly reduces any chance of the Twins keeping both pitchers after their current contracts expire after the 2008 season. OK, that is under-selling it, signing Thome for that amount of money would preclude signing both pitchers and may even make signing one of those two pitchers problematic.
So following in the footsteps of Garret Anderson in 2005 and Brian Giles in 2006, Thome will be allowed to leave, sign a rich free agent contract (with a divisional foe no less) and wished good luck. The Twins will muddle along without him.
1 comment:
The fans of Fargo-Moorhead are outraged! No new stadium for you!
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